The impact of German-speaking online media on tourist arrivals in popular tourist destinations for Europeans

This empirical study analyzes the relationship between the sentiments in online media with regard to travel destinations and corresponding tourist arrivals. We expect the media reports on political and economic instability and turmoil to enhance tourist arrival nowcasts and forecasts, as they can probably complement them with information on disruptions and shocks. Therefore, we believe this research will help to build better models for tourism demand nowcasting and forecasting. We use the sentiment in the German-speaking online media because the German-speaking region is the most populated in Europe and has the largest group of travelers visiting destinations in and around Europe.

An artificial neural network is used to analyze the mood of the media. The software classifies news items regarding potential tourist destinations with either positive or negative labels. The number of positive and negative news items is used to build sentiment indices for popular tourist destinations for Europeans.

Our results show strong correlations between the mood concerning tourist destinations and tourist arrivals in these countries. Indeed, disruptions and shocks prevalent in the news are reflected in similar ratios in both tourist arrivals and sentiment indices. These results can be used as a new explanatory variable for tourism demand modelling.     

水生态系统服务供需视角下的水网乡村 适应性规划策略——以吴江张鸭荡片区为例

苏南乡村地区一直是中国乡村建设的先行区域，特殊的纵横交错的水网结构构成了一个错综复杂的系统，呈现出其他地区不具有的复杂性和生态特殊性。随着城镇的扩张，乡村的发展建设使其水网空间的平衡发展面临极大的挑战。传统单一静态的规划方法逐渐显示出无法适应经济、社会等发展要求的缺陷。苏南乡村地区以水为核心，从水生态系统服务供需关系的视角下探究水网乡村的适应性规划策略更加适应当前的乡村现状和需求。以传统水网乡村空间形态转译为基础，建立水生态系统供需服务评估体系，在评估水生态系统服务供需能力的基础上，分析供需分异模式及供需矛盾。从构建乡村水域空间生态格局、乡村水域空间功能分区规划，以及乡村水域空间多情景预判3个方面，提出苏南水网乡村的适应性规划策略，并为水网乡村的生态实践提出新思路。     

消费者需求受食品质量与安全影响的讨论分析

近年来,国内经济发展迅速,人们生活水平也得到很大提升,使得人们越来越重视安全,而食品是人们生活中的基本物质保障,是人们生活的必需品,所以食品的质量与安全问题是当下最热门的话题之一。当前消费者的需求会受食品质量与安全的影响,频发的食品质量与安全问题让人们愈发重视食品质量与安全,消费者的需求渐渐发生变化。基于此,本文展开了关于食品质量与安全对消费者需求的影响的研究。     

信息分享对原始设备制造商与其合同制造商竞争的影响

研究了原始设备制造商的预测信息分享对一个原始设备制造商和一个与其同时有合作和竞争的合同制造商组成的供应链系统的影响,建立制造商间信息分享的模型,该模型包括一个原始设备制造商和一个合同制造商。研究发现,原始设备制造商关于市场潜在需求预测信息的分享对其预期利润是不利的,同时需求信息预测的精度对原始设备制造商信息分享的决策也有影响,原始设备制造商没有动机与其供应链成员进行信息分享,但信息分享使得供应链整体利润增加。最后,建立一个信息分享补偿机制分享供应链利润的增加量,以期通过信息分享补偿机制促使原始设备制造商有动机进行信息分享,从而实现其与合同制造商的“双赢”。     

Price Effects on Compound Commodities

We examine the effect of simultaneous price changes on the total demand for a group of goods, which we call a compound commodity. Specifically, we consider unit and proportional cost components (e.g., taxes, transportation costs) imposed on compound commodities. If the unit cost is positive, then the proportional cost raises the relative price of the more expensive good, and thus induces substitution towards the less expensive good within this group. Then, the substitution effect of the proportional cost for a compound commodity is non‐negative if and only if the compound commodity and the other goods are, on average, not strongly substitutable.     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

Neither an Authentic Product nor a Counterfeit: The Growing Popularity of Shanzhai Products in Global Markets

Counterfeits have been a longstanding concern to global brand manufactures. However, recently, a new product category that partly imitates and partly innovates under the term shanzhai has entered into market. Shanzhai products mimic original leading brands through visual or functional similarities and may also provide additional features. Given this new copycat phenomenon, our study for the first time conceptually distinguishes shanzhai products from counterfeits, theoretically compares the values of consumers choosing shanzhai products versus counterfeits, and empirically tests such differences in one integrative model. Specifically, shanzhai buyers value product functional benefits more than counterfeit buyers, while counterfeit buyers value status consumption, yet experience less self‐clarity than shanzhai buyers. Our findings offer important implications for imitative innovation literature as well as for practitioners.     

电子商务技能型人才需求与高职教育培养匹配研究

产业转型升级发展对专业技能型人才的需求发生变化,作为技能型人才重要培养主体的高职院校,面临着如何培养新时代高素质技能人才的挑战。通过招聘大数据挖掘电子商务技能型人才的需求特征,同时调研相关高职院校电子商务专业人才培养现状,分析供需匹配度。结果表明:电商企业需要德技并修的高素质技能型人才,而高职院校的课程体系以专业技能、商务技能等硬技能教学为主,忽视综合素养软技能教育,同时,高职院校电子商务专业课程开设未能根据行业技术更新和产业转型发展及时调整。基于研究结果,从课程体系建设、校企合作深化、工匠精神培育等方面提出相关建议。     

我国中小企业三维差异化特征比较研究

作为推动国民经济增长和促进社会稳定的基础力量,中小企业在市场中扮演着最活跃的经济主体。与大企业相比,中小企业有其鲜明的成长特征,从动态演进视角选取体量规模、生命周期、要素需求三个维度,系统探讨了中小企业的差异化特征。结论显示:体量规模特征反映在个体与群体以及经济板块之间;生命周期特征体现在死亡陷阱和空间格局演变上;要素需求特征会根据阶段创新内容的不同做出适时调整。     

The effects of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries

This study examines the effects of three types of oil price shocks on inflation in the G7 countries with a new method of isolating oil price shocks. Based on monthly data from January 1997 to January 2019, we find that each oil price shock has the largest effect on U.S. inflation among the G7 countries and each country’s response to oil price shocks is different. Moreover, a rolling-window analysis shows that supply shocks, demand shocks and risk shocks have dynamic effects on inflation. The effect of supply shocks on inflation is strong before the financial crisis, but weakens during the crisis. However, the effect of demand shocks increases sharply in this time. The effect of risk shocks mainly occurs during the financial crisis and the European debt crisis. In addition, this study uses two ways to verify the robustness of the results. Our empirical results have important implications for policymakers and manufacturers, since the results provide a good explanation for the response of inflation in the G7 countries to the oil price shocks from different sources.